Walnuts & Hazelnuts Report 15.10.24
Walnuts
For 2024/25, Turkish walnut production is forecast at 67,000 MT, equal to the previous year’s revised estimate. While the number of bearing trees grew this year, the anticipated increase in production coming from these bearing trees did not materialise because of warmer-than-normal weather in June and July and hail damage in several parts of the country. Consequently, these weather conditions may negatively impact walnut quality.
The Objective Estimate for the 2024 Californian crop is 670,000 tons which is substantially down from the 2023 crop of 824,000 tons. This came as somewhat of a surprise since original pre-objective estimates ranged between 700,000 and 740,000 tons.
In terms of varieties, there is a great deal of irregularity in yield and quality, even within orchards of growers but overall Howards have been reasonable but Tulares have been poor and are reported to be 20-40% down. Harvest of Chandlers, which make up the largest % of the crop, is just starting to come in. There are some concerning reports of quantities being 10-30% down in some parts of the state.
There will be some scepticism about this estimate but regardless we are looking at fewer Californian Walnuts this season.
This all comes against a backdrop of:
- A very disappointing Chilean crop which has increased buyers’ reliance on Californian walnuts
- Several years of low prices/poor returns for Californian farmers resulted in some recent casualties
- A good Chinese crop with very competitive pricing relative to California.
Trade
Walnut imports for 2024/25 are forecast unchanged from the previous year’s newly revised number at 104,000 MT. Turkish traders import, process, pack, and re-export walnuts to third countries. Traders agree that Türkiye will continue to be a net importer of walnuts. They reason that domestic production is insufficient to keep pace with Turkish consumers’ strong demand for high-quality walnuts.
The United States leads in supplying walnuts to Türkiye in 2024/25, followed by Chile, China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine. Additionally, U.S. walnuts are facing increasing competition from Chile, China and other markets due to price and seasonality considerations. Further, U.S. walnuts are disadvantaged by Türkiye’s retaliatory tariff, which encourages Turkish traders to buy from other countries.
Walnut exports for 2024/25 are forecast at 38,000 MT, which is slightly more previous year’s newly revised number. The export estimate for 2023/24 is revised to 36,000 metric tons based on the latest trade statistics.
Hazelnuts
Türkiye is the largest producer and exporter of hazelnuts in the world, accounting for about 60-70 per cent of global production and around 70-75 per cent of world exports. Additionally, production in 2024/25 is forecast higher year-over-year at 675,000 MT.
There are approximately 500,000 producers and 4 million people directly or indirectly employed by hazelnut production in Türkiye on an area of around 725,000 hectares. Hazelnuts require relatively little effort to cultivate and input requirements are low. However, with better maintenance, the yield efficiency of Turkish hazelnut orchards could easily be improved. Due to socio-economic reasons, Turkish hazelnut orchards are not well maintained, and the trees are aged with some orchards dating back as many as 70 years.