Walnut Shipment Report 10.07.24

With record production in 2023 and a larger carryover, California prices dropped, boosting buyer confidence to purchase large volumes throughout most of the season. High-quality California produce was well received in all markets, encouraging additional orders in the spring.

California is now well-positioned to reduce its carryover heading into the 2024 crop year. The carryover inventory in California will be less than in recent seasons, and many overseas markets are also experiencing lower inventory levels. The Chilean crop fell short of expectations, with some items nearly sold out.

Expectations for California's 2024 crop are for a smaller yield compared to last season, though it's too early for an accurate forecast. Many California growers anticipate a 10-20% drop in production, resulting in a crop size between 660,000 and 740,000 tons. Notably, California is currently experiencing two weeks of high temperatures ranging from 43°C to 45°C. While these conditions are not ideal for walnuts, it's too early to compare this to the 2022 crop, which faced similar temperatures in late August and September. The orchards have ample water and appear healthy overall, with more information on potential heat damage expected in the coming weeks. Typically, late-season heat causes the most problems.

Markets are firming for the 2023 crop of walnuts from all origins due to limited inventory. Early 2024 crop California businesses is being conducted at prices 30-35% higher than the market opening last season. While this increase may seem significant, the prices seen over the past 2-3 seasons were unsustainable. Looking ahead, the overall supply and demand outlook positions the industry for greater success than in recent years.

via Derco Foods