Walnut Report 12.12.23

2023 Crop

As of 30th November, the reported walnut receipts stand at 778,270 inshell tons, surpassing the projected crop estimate of 760,000 inshell tons. Over the last 10 seasons, the average percentage received by 30th November is 97%. If this trend continues, the total inshell tons for the 2023 crop will reach 802,340.

Irrespective of the final crop receipt figure, it is evident that California is experiencing record-breaking production this season. Taking into account the carry-in, the overall supply has reached unprecedented levels.

Shipments

• In November, shipments of inshell walnuts totalled 46.7 million pounds, marking a 7% decline compared to the same period in November 2022.
• Season-to-date shipments through November reached approximately 217,000 inshell equivalent tons, constituting around 29% of the 2023 crop.  This performance is slightly more favourable than the corresponding periods in the past couple of seasons, where it stood at 26% in 2021 and 25% in 2022, respectively.
• With the increasing walnut production from other sources in recent years, early-season shipments from California are encountering robust competition. The conventional autumn season characterised by substantial California walnut shipments has evolved, with certain regions experiencing slower purchasing compared to previous years. However, winter and spring shipments are maintaining a strong pace.

The California walnut market has shown increased activity but remains highly volatile, with substantial price variations among different packers. Due to the record production and varied outcomes in early-season shipments, substantial upward price shifts are unlikely in the short term. Packer companies that have not met their sales targets are expected to actively pursue business, adopting an aggressive approach to secure sales before the arrival of spring and warmer temperatures.