Vine Fruits and Tree Fruits Market Report 02.04.24

Sultanas and Natural Thompson Seedless Raisins

Raw Material Quantity

As there was no official field study by the group of experts in the vineyards during pre-season and no official announcement for the estimated volume for the 2023 crop, it should be noted that 220,000MT is only an industry estimate.

Despite the lack of intention to estimate the total crop volume, the registered figures are still announced monthly. As of February 2024, the figure from The Bourse is 150,000 tons which reflects a decrease of 54% from last year's volume of 290,000 tons. Registrations so far indicate a volume similar to 2016, where the crop faced many winter and spring frosts, resulting in an end registration of 210,000 tons. However, this season differs with higher January and February figures, but we cannot judge if the estimate is correct until we see figures from April and May.

2023 Crop Exports

The export volume for the 2023 crop as of the third week of March 2024 has reached 143,500 MT, 3% lower than the 147,400 MT of the 2022 crop in the same week last year. The unit average export price has increased to $2,157 per metric ton, up from the previous crop's level of $1,687 per metric ton.

The top ten countries still account for 85% of the total volume. The top five imported dried grapes from Türkiye are the UK (34,200 MT), Netherlands (19,600 MT), Germany (14,200 MT), Italy (11,300 MT), and Australia (9,900 MT). Compared to the 2022 season, Australia has seen a huge 99% increase in volume. The Netherlands had a slight increase of 3%, while the UK, Italy and Germany all had a decrease.

Price Levels and Market

The growers who are holding onto their fruits continue to have high price expectations. Starting from the beginning of the season, the raw material prices had upward market movement. Recently, during February and March, the prices have also been affected by increased local demand due to Ramadan. Alcohol producers unexpectedly entered the market after the new year, creating extra demand until early March. Due to some growers wanting to wait until the results of local elections at the end of March and some wanting to see the risk of frost until the end of April, the market is uncertain at the moment as elections can create unusual price expectations on the currency.

Tree Fruits

Apricots

The export volume for the 2023 crop reached 50,000 MT by the third week of March 2024, which is 20.4% lower than the 60,200 MT of the 2022 crop during the same period. The average unit export price increased by 12.7% from last year's $5,519 to $6,222 per MT this year.

The prices of sulphured and natural apricots have been generally stable in the last month. The availability of types 1-2s for sulphured and types 1-4s and type 8s for natural apricots seem to be more available than other types. However, due to the limited general availability of the fruit, the prices of different types are all at similar levels. The flowering period of apricot trees has begun in low-altitude areas. Some trees in high-altitude areas are still asleep. Even though there were some days of rain during the flowering period, it did not negatively affect the trees. Nowadays, the weather conditions progress within the seasonal norms, and, with no cold weather issues for the next ten days as of the end of March 2024.

Figs

The export volume of the 2023 crop reached 43,900 MT by the third week of March 2024, which is 3.6% lower than the 45,500 MT of the 2022 crop during the same period. The unit price also increased to $5,208 per MT up from $4,358 per MT on a weekly basis.

The smaller sizes are more available in the market (type 6-7-8s). The prices show an upward movement compared to last month's levels. The raw material seems to be mostly in the hands of traders and exporters. The industry believes that the fig growers are not holding to their fruit. There is no development regarding the new season as the fig trees are still in their sleeping period.

via Pagmat