Vietnam Cashew Market, Mid - Year Review
Cashew productivity and price fell in 2022
Due to unfavourable weather (unseasonal rainfull in Feb), also signs of pets and diseases in major cashew growing areas. In the first 6 month, Vietnam imported roughly 1,200,000 MT of RCN -33.36% compared to 2021 Cambodia – largest RCN exporter to VN, suffered the crop damage due to unseasonal rainfall and flooding, where crop loss roughly 30% compared to 2021. There was some concern about crop in some parts of West Africa but the impact may not be very Large.
Africa & Other Trade
* The first 6 month of the year marked by a decline in imports from Vietnam with nearly 165 000 MT if we consider the official imports statistics fow raw nuts from Cambodia.
* Poor crop harvest in majority origins
* Massive imports from India as the market speedy recover their domestic demand after Covid pandemic
* The international cashew kernel market is still uncertain in macroeconomic context marked by many macroeconomic context marked by many macroeconomic unknowns (Russia -Ukraine warfare, high inflation & inflation & credit crunch in US and EU, Covid situation in China.
Price Trend
The market price movement of cashew kernels in the first 6 month of 2022 did not go as expected by exporters.
Early of 2022, CK prices remained the downward trend that began in August last year, and touched the lowest level in March.
Price then rebounded in April, due to significantly short crops harvest inVietnam and Cambodia. But thus rally also soon cooled down since mid-May when the strong purchase power from the US, UK and Middle East markets could not last for long, Once again kernel prices have continued to decline so far, even nearing their March lows.
Despite the imbalance of the price of RCN and the price of CK, plus the shortage of raw materials which will certainly affects the price of kernel in the future. Still, the price of cashew kernels depends on the return of demand to recover, especially from China and Europe.
The US continues to be the most favourite destination of VN cashew kernels. While the positions behind have changed from last year, The Netherlands took second place, China dropped to fourth place behind Singapore.
Country – wise Trade Volume.
US – High demand from US in the FH of the year has contributed significantly to keep the cashew kernel price from dropping more.But the import of US has decreased from the end of April, the price of cashew kernels has also decreased since then.
China – The situation is very disappointing for China – the 2nd largest consumer market after the US, border congestion along with the Chinese government still maintaining strict control over covid 19 makes the volume of exports to this country decreased by 30.42%.
EU & Others – Large inventories from last year coupled with the devaluation of the euro and other currencies against the dollar caused a significant drop in purchasing power from the EU and other market in the first 6 months of the year – 7.41% compared with the same period last year.
Bullish
-RCN price continues to be firm. Availability of raw seeds in the Vietnam market has ran out gradually.
-Kernel price range has tightened slightly, as supply from smaller processors tends to shrink.
- Kernel prices are at the bottom level.
-High demand for Q4 – year end festival season from Western importers.
-Freight rates have cooled down for the last 3 month
Bearish
-Western markets are well supplied, decent inventory at the destinations explains the weakness of current demand.
-The EU currency has weakened, buyers seek to consume substitute products.
- China reopens, freight rate can rise anytime.
- War in Ukraine, sanctions, inflations , credit crunch…