US Almonds, Market Update 13.10.2023

The almond market has been relatively quiet in recent weeks, with both buyers and sellers taking a cautious approach. However, the mood around the market is mostly positive, with buyers seeing demand coming back and sellers confident of a stable market into 2024.

The September Position Report was released on October 13th and was stronger than expected. Shipments were robust, with the industry putting 270 million pounds on the books in the month. This represents a 13% increase over the same period last year.

Key Highlights

• YTD shipments are up 3%.
• Commitments are up 1%.
• China and the Middle East are down 40% and 23% YTD respectively, due to a lack of high quality product.
• The domestic market has shown some form of recovery, up 21% for the month.
• India had a strong month and is up 32% YTD.
• Crop receipts are down 36%, which is a worrying trend for the market.
• Net new sales of 270 million pounds were well above market expectations.

The market is expected to remain firm in the short term, with limited upside or downside. Buyers are likely to continue to take advantage of any 2022 crop they can find.

China and the Middle East are likely to start buying again soon, but they will be facing a limited supply base and firmer prices. Sellers are also likely to start participating in the new crop market more actively in the coming weeks.