Turkish Sultanas Update 24.05.24

All eyes are focused on the development of the 2024 crop. The weather conditions during June-July this year and the situation at the vineyards will be critical for the tail end of the current season and also the start of next season. The frost damage that occurred on the 23rd of March in the growing regions seems to be recovered by the vineyards. They do still look a little weaker than usual seasons because of last year's negative effects from Magnolia disease.

Currency

The market for Sultanas is firm and the raw material prices have reached 120-130 TL/KG. The availability of raw material is extremely light as the farmers are not willing to sell their remaining goods in this short crop year depending on the increasing trend of the prices. The demand from the importers is still strong as some major clients were short for their local contracts, and are currently covering their needs at any price level. Most of the suppliers in Turkey are not offering Sultanas due to the rising market situation, and according to our estimations, the prices may go up by another $100-200/MT in the coming days. This depends on the short crop year, stable demand from importers, increasing production costs and considerably low US currency against the Turkish Lira in Turkey.

The $USD is decreasing against the Turkish Lira and stayed at 32,10 TL this week. The new economic policy of the government in Turkey is based on the increase of interest rates to fight the extremely high inflation. As a result, the interest rate has increased by 50% by the central bank of Turkey which is not beneficial for exporters. A strong Turkish Lira against foreign currencies results in higher final export prices, and we are expecting the rising trend of interest rates in Turkey to continue to fight inflation. This uncertainty makes long-term contracts and cost calculations very difficult. The movement of the currency will continue to be a key point for Sultana's pricing in the coming weeks.

Exports and Availability

Turkey's total export quantity has been realised as 169,759 MT as of today, slightly lower than 186,70 MT last year for the same period. This is due to a shorter crop for the 2023/2024 season. The estimations for the 2023 crop are below 200,000 MT is concerning for the market as the quantity may not be enough for Turkey's current export season.

Type 8 and 9's are the most widely available Sultanas in the market at the moment. There has been a big shortage of Type 10's, and the price gap between 9's and 10's will continue to increase higher than in previous seasons. Unfortunately, Type 11 Sultanas seem to not be available for full container loads at this stage. The availability of Thompsons is smaller too, and the raw material price is increasing in parallel to the Sultana's pricing. We suggest that Raisins buyers cover their needs as soon as possible depending on the limited availability of the goods in the market.

via Sunrose