Seed Market Outlook 10.11.23

Flaxseed:

The flaxseed market is facing a number of challenges in 2023, including extreme weather conditions, short yields, and quality defects. This is likely to lead to higher prices for good quality flaxseed, as farmers hold onto their stock and demand from Europe remains subdued.

Impact on the market:

• Short yields: The short yields are likely to reduce the overall supply of flaxseed, which will put upward pressure on prices.
• Quality defects: The quality defects will further reduce the supply of good quality flaxseed, which will put even more upward pressure on prices.
• Farmers holding onto stock: As farmers hold onto their stock, the supply of flaxseed available for purchase will be further reduced, which will also put upward pressure on prices.
• Subdued demand from Europe: The subdued demand from Europe will help to mitigate the upward pressure on prices, but it is unlikely to be enough to offset the other factors.

Overall, the outlook for the flaxseed market in 2023 is for higher prices. This is due to a combination of factors, including short yields, quality defects, farmers holding onto stock, and subdued demand from Europe.

Sunflower:

The EU sunflower seed production in 2023 is expected to be less than 10 million mt, which is a continued reduction from the previous estimates. This is due to a number of factors, including drought, heatwaves, and flooding. Bulgaria, the largest producer of sunflower seeds in the EU, has seen its crop decline by a quarter year-on-year. However, France has become the top producer, with a crop of 2.17 million mt.

Despite the decline in production, prices for Bulgarian sunflower seeds are still stable and as cheap as they were last in autumn 2020. This is because demand for sunflower seeds remains moderate. However, oil seed prices are moving up, so it is possible that sunflower seed prices will start to increase in the future.

Overall, the outlook for the EU sunflower seed market in 2023 is mixed. On the one hand, production is expected to decline. On the other hand, demand remains moderate, which is keeping prices subdued.

Here are some additional thoughts on the sunflower seed market:

• The decline in EU sunflower seed production is likely to lead to increased imports from other countries, such as Ukraine, Russia, and Argentina.
• The war in Ukraine is also likely to have an impact on the sunflower seed market, as Ukraine is a major exporter of sunflower seeds.
• The demand for sunflower seeds is expected to grow in the coming years, as they are a healthy and versatile ingredient.

Overall, the sunflower seed market is expected to remain volatile in the near term, but the long-term outlook is positive.

Millet:

The millet market has settled somewhat in recent weeks, with prices leveling out as new crop is offered out. However, there are still some concerns about yields due to abnormally hot weather, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the fact that some suppliers are in a short position.

It is likely that millet prices will remain stable for the rest of the year, with a possible increase in the new year. This is in line with previous years' trends. However, there may be some disparities in offers from different suppliers.

Overall, the millet market outlook for the rest of 2023 and 2024 is positive. Demand is expected to grow in the coming years, as millet is a healthy and versatile ingredient. However, the market is likely to remain volatile in the near term due to the factors mentioned above.

Here are some additional thoughts on the millet market:

• The growing popularity of plant-based diets is likely to boost demand for millet in the coming years.
• Millet is a drought-tolerant crop, which makes it a good choice for farmers in areas that are affected by climate change.
• The increasing awareness of the health benefits of millet is also driving demand for this crop.

Overall, the millet market is poised for growth in the coming years. However, it is important to monitor the market closely due to the potential for volatility in the near term.

Poppy:

The poppy seed market is facing a number of challenges in 2023, including short yields and high prices. This is likely to continue for the rest of the year and into 2024.

Impact on the market:

• Short yields: The short yields are likely to reduce the overall supply of poppy seeds, which will put upward pressure on prices.
• High prices: The high prices are likely to discourage demand for poppy seeds, which could further reduce the overall supply.
• Limited competition from other origins: The fact that there are no other origins to offer a real competitive comparison means that Czech poppy seed producers have more pricing power.

Overall, the outlook for the poppy seed market in 2023 and 2024 is for high prices and limited supply. Buyers should be prepared to pay a premium for poppy seeds and should secure their supplies early.

Here are some additional thoughts on the poppy seed market:

• The short yields are due to a number of factors, including extreme weather conditions and pests and diseases.
• The high prices are due to the combination of short yields and limited competition from other origins.
• The demand for poppy seeds is expected to remain relatively stable in the coming years.

Overall, the poppy seed market is likely to remain volatile in the near term, but the long-term outlook is positive.

Pumpkin:

The pumpkin seed market is facing a number of challenges in 2023, including extreme weather conditions, short yields, and high prices. This is likely to continue for the rest of the year and into 2024.

Impact on the market:

• Short yields: The short yields are likely to reduce the overall supply of pumpkin seeds, which will put upward pressure on prices.
• High prices: The high prices are likely to discourage demand for pumpkin seeds, which could further reduce the overall supply.
• Farmers buying up stock: Farmers buying up stock is likely to further reduce the supply of pumpkin seeds available for purchase, which will also put upward pressure on prices.

Overall, the outlook for the pumpkin seed market in 2023 and 2024 is for high prices and limited supply. Buyers should be prepared to pay a premium for pumpkin seeds and should secure their supplies early.

Additional thoughts:

• The short yields are due to a number of factors, including extreme weather conditions, pests, and diseases.
• The high prices are due to the combination of short yields and farmers buying up stock.
• The demand for pumpkin seeds is expected to remain relatively stable in the coming years.

Overall, the pumpkin seed market is likely to remain volatile in the near term, but the long-term outlook is positive.

What can buyers do?

Buyers of pumpkin seeds can take a number of steps to mitigate the impact of the short yields and high prices:

• Secure their supplies early.
• Be prepared to pay a premium for pumpkin seeds.
• Consider alternative sources of pumpkin seeds, such as imports.
• Use pumpkin seeds more efficiently. For example, they can be ground into flour or used as a topping for other foods.

Buyers should also monitor the market closely for any changes in the supply or demand for pumpkin seeds.