Pulses Market Update, 14.07.2023

The UK market was mixed this week, with some positive news on the economic front being offset by concerns about inflation and interest rates.

On the positive side, wage inflation prints for May were stubborn, which boosted the GBPUSD pair to its highest level since April 2022. The British Retail Consortium also reported that retail sales grew more robustly in June, by 4.2% in like-for-like sales from the same period a year ago.

However, concerns about inflation and interest rates weighed on the market. The average rate on two-year UK mortgages hit its highest level since August 2008.

Red Split Lentils

The red lentil market is expected to remain strong in the coming months, as demand from India and Turkey is expected to remain high.

However, the supply outlook is uncertain, as the Canadian crop is expected to be smaller than last year, and the Australian crop is also facing some weather challenges.

Canada. Reds crop could drop by as much as 30% to 1.3 million tonnes, while Large Greens may increase by 10% to 390,000 metric tonnes. However, many in the trade believe that production will be similar to last year.

The Australian red lentil crop is also facing some challenges, as the country has experienced below-average rainfall in recent months. This could lead to a smaller crop than expected, which would also support prices.

The Turkish market is expected to remain strong in the coming months, as the country has experienced a good domestic crop this year.

Turkish-origin lentils are usually slightly higher in price, but suppliers are currently offering both origins for the same price, due to the good harvest. Decent stocks, good domestic crop prospects, rising rates, and reducing re-export demand can restrict the country's lentil imports in the second half of 2023. 

The red lentil market is expected to remain strong in the coming months, as demand from India and Turkey is expected to remain high. However, the supply outlook is uncertain, as the Canadian crop is expected to be smaller than last year, and the Australian crop is also facing some weather challenges.

Chickpeas

The chickpeas market has not changed much since the last report. The majority of Turkish suppliers are offering Turkish chickpeas for long-term contracts and Canadian for prompt shipment due to positive expectations for the Turkish chickpeas crop. However, according to the GPC, the Turkish harvest for chickpeas haven't started yet, and due to heavy rains, the forecast is not so positive.

Demand for chickpeas is expected to remain strong. Prices of chickpeas are expected to remain stable in the coming months. Main origins of Kabuli chickpeas for the UK market are Argentina, Turkey, and Canada.