Pecans Market Report 09.09.24
The pecan harvest in the Southern Hemisphere is nearing completion, at around 90% of the total volume already harvested. The leading producer in the region, South Africa, accounts for approximately 70% of the harvest, yielding around 30,000 tons this year.
China has emerged as a key buyer, securing 90% of its crop at an average price of $5.00 USD per kilogram. The final shipments are expected to leave in September and reach China in early October, which aligns perfectly with the demand for pecans during the Chinese New Year celebrations on 29th January. This highlights the significant role South Africa plays in the global pecan market and the importance of timing exports to align with seasonal demand in China, one of the world's largest pecan consumers.
US & Mexico Harvests
Harvesting of the new crop in the Southern USA and Northern Mexico is expected to begin within the next 30 days, around late September or early October. Most growing regions are reporting a lower nut yield on the trees, with the crop projected to decrease by at least 5% to 10% compared to the 2023/24 season. This decline applies to both Mexico and the USA. The primary factors behind the reduced crop volume are the high temperatures and droughts experienced from March to May, compounded by ongoing drought conditions over the past two years. However, some forecasted rain may help improve the crop's quality.
Global Demand
Demand from Europe appears strong, with numerous inquiries and offers being exchanged. The USA and Canada have maintained steady purchasing activity, while demand in Mexico has increased over the past year due to the strength of the Peso against the US Dollar. However, this advantage has lessened with the recent devaluation of the Peso against the Dollar.
Price Forecast
In the short term, prices are expected to remain steady as the market awaits confirmation of crop sizes and conditions. Buyers may exercise caution, helping to keep prices relatively stable. However, in the long term, prices are likely to rise once the USDA confirms a smaller-than-usual crop and reduced carry-over from the previous year. This will likely trigger increased buying activity as processors and exporters scramble to secure limited supplies, especially with rising prices for other nuts. If demand continues to outpace supply, the pecan market could experience sustained higher prices well into the 2025 harvest season.
via Pecaninis