Lentils, Market report, Chelmer Foods. 04.05.2023

According to recent estimates, the acreage for the upcoming crop season is expected to decrease by 10% to 3.9 million acres compared to the previous year. Despite an average yield of 1,310 lb/acre, the 2023 crop is predicted to slightly decrease to 2.275 million tonnes, due to a smaller carry-in from the previous season. As a result, the supplies for the market are expected to fall to 2.48 million tonnes in 2023/24. The majority of the reduction is anticipated to be seen in red lentils, while the acreage for large greens is expected to remain relatively unchanged. This reduction is likely to create tighter market conditions for red lentils.

The international lentils market, especially the origins of Canada and Australia, continues to show strength due to off-farm disappearance, decent export pace, and projected lesser plantings in North America. Green lentils have outpaced red lentils in price growth.

Canada is expected to report new crop farmers' intentions on 26th April. Farmers have time until 6th June to complete plantings and declare crop insurance, which will provide price direction going forward. However, snow on the fields may delay plantings in Canada by a week. Lentil acreage could drop to 3.9 million, 10% less than in 2022, and total lentil production may decline to 2.275 million. The carry could be as low as 125K, and availability is expected to be 2.48-2.5 million. Lesser acreage is expected in reds, while green would be close to last year.

Good export pace is depleting supplies at the farm, which may result in very tight stocks in June/July (old crop) and Aug/Sep (new crop) respectively. Some prompt cargo of Canadian Crimsons FD quality traded at 720 Nhava Sheva for Apr/May. Offers can be seen like 725-730 FD and 745-750 MD for current (May/June) and new crop (Sep/Oct), respectively.
Crimsons track values can be seen around USD 660-670 DAF Vancouver for Apr/May and Aug/Sep, with no practical difference in current and new crop values. The last traded price was 650 DAF Van for new crop.
The last reported trade (about 10-15 days ago) of Canadian Green Lentils (Lairds) MC quality traded up to $1120 CNF Chennai/Tuticorin for Apr/May and New Crop around 1025 levels CNF for Sep/Oct. Lairds track values are firm around USD 1020 DAF Vancouver for Apr/May and New Crop around 910-20 for Sep/Oct.

Canada exported 175,000 mts lentils in Feb, majority of reds to Turkey, out of a total of 121K reds. Total green exports of 34,000 mts, mainly to Maroc and Columbia. This brings the total lentil exports to about 1.41 million, more than 5 years average of 1.12 million and last year's 872K. The season may finish with total lentil exports of 2.15 million.

Australian lentils' exports improved significantly in Feb to 224,000 mts (from Jan at 149,277 mts). India took 123K and Bangladesh 47,000 mts. Total lentil exports are almost touching 600,000 mts, better than any previous year. Nipper/Hallmark variety from Australia traded until 750 CNF Kolkata (2 weeks ago) and then dropped to 725 on the lack of buyers at higher levels. Now, the offers are like 740-750 against interest of 720-725 CNF basis. DCT values of Australian lentils maintain a firm tone around 940 AUD, while Jumbo's biggest beneficiary due to comparative smaller quantity around AUD 965.
Intervention by the Government of India, especially on Tur, has somewhat depressed the market sentiments in most of the pulses, including reds and greens. There are reports of Government officials verifying stocks at traders' warehouses in Maharashtra and Tamilnadu. Some traders estimate Indian reds (masur) crop at 13.5 million against the Government's numbers of 1.6 million, about 15%