India’s 2023 kabuli chickpea harvest and Price Forecast

• “This year’s yields were below average and this loss in productivity wiped out the expected increased output from the 30% increase in the sowing area.”

• “I believe prices will be high in India this year, higher than they were last year. And once India’s supply is exhausted, we will have to see how much other suppliers like Turkey, the U.S., Canada and Russia end up seeding.”

• “Even if all other origins increase the planted area by 30%, I still foresee a shortage for the next six months, especially of the large caliber sizes.”

According to GPC, the yield of kabuli chickpeas in India has been disappointing this year. At the beginning of the crop year, there were high expectations of a large crop, and traders sold 25-30,000 MT of chickpeas on forward contracts for shipment in March and April.

However, yields have been below average due to a seven-day stretch of unusually high temperatures in mid-December, which has affected the size of the grain. Farmers are also not doing proper crop rotations, which is causing yields to deteriorate over the long run.

As a result, market prices are going up as traders look to cover their short sales. So far, farmers have delivered about 100,000 MT to the market, of which roughly 30% has gone for export, 60% to the domestic market, and 10% is being held by traders. The crop is expected to be harvested by April 15, and farmers are projected to harvest between 300-350,000 MT of chickpeas, down from the expected 400-450,000 MT. Domestic demand is projected at 275-300,000 MT, and imports will be needed to meet this demand.