Hazelnuts Market Report 17.01.25

The hazelnut market began the week with a sharp uptick in prices, signalling a significant shift in market dynamics. This surge has been primarily driven by elevated pricing from key suppliers to Ferrero, one of the largest buyers in the sector. These increased rates are closely tied to the subpar quality of the current hazelnuts supply. This is a factor that continues to weigh heavily on market behaviour. Since the start of the year, the pace of price increases has consistently outstripped expectations, underscoring the volatile nature of the market in 2025.

Sellers are exercising caution as they navigate an environment where major buyers have yet to meet their purchasing needs. This delay in securing supply creates a sense of anticipation and strategic restraint among sellers, many of whom are holding onto their inventory in the hope of capitalising on even higher prices in the near future. Over the past two weeks, a pattern of continuous price hikes has further fueled these expectations. The prevailing sentiment among sellers is marked by hesitation, as they weigh the potential gains of waiting against the risk of missing out on optimal selling opportunities. The current market price for in-shell hazelnuts in the Black Sea region reflects this tension, standing at 140.00 TL. This is a clear indicator of the rising value attributed to this commodity.

Economy

On the macroeconomic front, Turkey’s economic stability provides a backdrop of reassurance for market participants. The Turkish lira remains robust against foreign currencies, supported by consistent monetary policy. With the policy interest rate set at 47.5%, the country’s economic framework appears resilient. No significant fluctuations in market conditions or currency values are anticipated in the short term. This environment of economic steadiness offers a counterbalance to the volatile hazelnut market, yet it also underscores the critical importance of monitoring both market-specific factors and broader economic trends.

As the situation unfolds, stakeholders across the supply chain—from growers to exporters—are keenly aware of the delicate interplay between quality concerns, pricing strategies, and global demand. For major players like Ferrero, the challenge lies in securing sufficient high-quality supply without exacerbating upward price pressures. For sellers, the decision to hold or release inventory remains fraught with uncertainty. This is influenced by both immediate market conditions and the broader economic landscape.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, hazelnuts trajectory will likely hinge on a range of factors. This includes harvest quality in the upcoming season, international demand trends, and any shifts in Turkey’s economic policies. In this high-stakes environment, the need for vigilant market analysis and strategic decision-making has never been more evident.