Cashew Market Update 30.05.24

After years of very low prices, the cashew market is sharply turning around. Following the Ivory Coast's announcement of a temporary export ban, prices have surged by around $1.00/lb in just a few weeks, and there doesn't seem to be any signs of it slowing down.

This rapid increase has been driven by a domino effect; Ivory Coast bans exports, Raw cashew nut prices start to rise quickly, Raw cashew nut sellers begin defaulting on contracts, Users need to cover their needs or renegotiate at higher prices.

Despite the Ivory Coast issue - which is anticipated to be resolved as the country can't absorb and process the large volumes - other factors were already putting pressure on the market. Shorter crops and lower quality yields are impacting production costs and market stability. Additionally, a significant surge in exports from Vietnam, driven by low prices, has fueled global consumption for several months.

Until the Ivory Coast resumes exports, prices are expected to remain firm, with uncertainty about how high they could go before stabilising. We might also see packers defaulting, which could sustain high demand and drive prices up further. Relief and some price correction are expected once the Ivory Coast lifts the ban and the Southern Hemisphere crops come in, but it's unlikely that prices will return to recent lows.

via Agrysol