Californian Almonds, Market update, 10.02.2023

The Almond Board of California released the January Position Report detailing shipments of 229 million pounds, up 29% from last year

• YTD shipments are now up 2%, a dramatic turnaround

• The most surprising and bullish part of the report was net new sales for January. 350 million pounds were put on the books in January compared with 207 million pounds last year. This is the largest sales number we have seen since September 2016 and the second largest on record for any month

• Commitments are down less than 1%

• Crop receipts are dwindling and pointing to a crop less than 2.6 billion pounds

• The domestic market struggled again, only flat on last January

• Exports were huge, up 47% compared to last January which was hit by the logistical challenges. India had another big month, up over 10 million pounds

• This has to be considered a bullish report. A strong report was expected and prices have been moving up over the past week but it was hard to see a sales figure as strong as the above. Whilst there is still pressure on California and we do not expect a huge swing upwards, this should build on the December number and move the market in a healthy direction. California will need to keep moving along but buyers should be prepared for some firmness out of origin

• Attention now turns to bloom which will be getting underway.

California's water conditions have improved significantly this year due to a wet winter which has seen many storms. This has led to an increase in the Sierra Nevada snowpack and the filling of California's reservoirs. While water regulators have not yet committed to full water allocations, the continued improvement in conditions suggests that water availability will not be an issue this season.

Almond imports in India and China have increased significantly this year, with India importing over 34 million pounds in January and China importing 5.8 million pounds in the same month. However, the presence of free trade agreements between Australia and these countries is providing Australian almond suppliers with a pricing advantage over California suppliers, which could dampen the growth potential from these markets for California. Meanwhile, Western Europe has also seen a phenomenal growth in almond imports, with a +64.7% YoY increase in January.