Californian Almond, Harvest Update 05.09.2022

Anderson-Export: California continues to experience historic drought conditions; it was recently reported that 16 of the state’s 17 largest reservoirs started September below, or well below, historic average levels.

• California’s outlook may not improve in the near term, as the water year has not yielded the snowpack many had hoped for, with April 2022 snow depths almost 40% below normal.

The numbers are dire in the Central Valley, while the Sacramento region has seen closer to normal rainfall this year.

• The Fresno Area has seen 50% of average rainfall in the last 11 months.3

A record number of almonds were exported from California in June, a major departure from historic trends. 

• Typically, October reports the most shipments in any given marketing year for California almonds, yet June 2022 reversed the usual annual rhythm.

This shows shipments have recovered greatly in the second half of 2022 as the global shipping backlog reaches greater equilibrium.

• This could mean good news for almond shippers heading into the 2022 / 2023 marketing year and potentially more favorable cash flow projections.

California’s 2022 almond forecast is down over last year - 2022 production is forecast at 2.60 billion meat pounds, down 11 percent from last year’s crop of 2.92 billion meat pounds.

• Nonpareil is forecast at 1.00 billion meat pounds, 12% below last year - the Nonpareil variety represents 38% of California's total almond production.

California’s total exports for in-shell walnuts saw the lowest total shipments of any of the last 4 marketing years.

• The Middle East & Africa continue to be the top destinations for California in-shell walnuts with Europe in a distant second.

It is interesting to note that the shipment numbers for the 2021 / 2022 marketing year were notably lower in total shipments than the initial COVID years.

• This could be due to a number of factors like regional drought conditions, cyclical resting of trees, shipment related issues, and others.

The potential good news is that California’s in-shell shipments are poised to recover and could see strong growth as container shipping issues ease entering the Christmas / New Year period.