California Walnut Report 20.11.24

The 2024 California walnut crop estimate has been set at 670,000 inshell tons, a 19% decrease from the 2023 harvest. However, many industry experts believe this estimate is overly conservative.

Harvesting began in September, and early-season varieties fell significantly short of expectations. As the season progressed, mid and late-season varieties also underperformed. Now, many in the industry speculate that the total crop may be down by 30% or more compared to last year.

The lighter-than-expected yield has led growers who sold early to find themselves more sold than anticipated. Many growers withdrew from the market during harvest to reassess their volume and sales strategies. Limited supply and strong demand have pushed prices significantly higher than pre-harvest levels. With a smaller crop and low inventory across most markets entering the season, buyers have been scrambling to secure supplies for the months ahead.

In contrast to California and Chile, the 2024 Chinese walnut crop exceeded expectations. Early-season prices from China were significantly lower than the California walnut, especially when adjusted on a kernel basis. Buyers in markets such as Türkiye and the UAE capitalized on this price disparity by securing large volumes. While Chinese walnut prices have since increased, they remain well below Californian levels. However, Chinese walnuts are less widely accepted in many markets compared to Californian walnuts, which continue to see strong demand from key regions like Europe, India, and Southeast Asia. That said, some markets have shown a growing acceptance of new Chinese varieties, adjusting their purchasing strategies accordingly.

via DERCO