Almonds... thoughts of empire pacific

Almonds:

The market remains much like a roller coast. Prices go down then quickly go up after a flurry of contracts are done.  There is substantial concern with the continued loss of market share in some markets. Japan has been a bright spot with increases totaling 8% but the rest of Asia is down substantially. Overall , export markets continue to trend downwards. If sales continue the downward trend to -13-15%, the carryout would increase to 676,000,000 pound compared to 408,000,000 last year. This is why we expect prices to move closer to the $3.50. There is a high possibility of a huge crop in 2016 so it would behoove the industry to target a carryout less than last year. We will continue to watch the monthly trends but we do expect this up and down activity to continue throughout the year. Packers who have more of their own production will have more control. We believe it is very important now to take care of customers for tomorrows large crops. Current NPX prices are around $3.90. Cal varieties much less.