Almonds Market Update 13.01.25
California almond handlers shipped over 233 million pounds of almonds in December. This marks the largest December shipment volume since the 2020/21 season. This is a 1.6% increase compared to last year. Domestic and export shipment volumes were similar to the previous year, with domestic shipments -1.1% and export shipments +2.5%. Overall, handlers have shipped the same total volume through the first five months of the crop year as they did a year ago.
In December, handlers received 233 million pounds of new crop receipts, significantly lower than what was received during the same month last year. This decline was anticipated due to the earlier harvest and reports from hullers indicating that many would complete their work before the year’s end. Total crop receipts now surpass 2.575 billion pounds, a 15.6% increase compared to this time last year.
New commitments in December exceeded 182 million pounds, aligning with pre-COVID buying patterns but falling below the recent average of 230 million pounds. Total committed shipments stand at 561 million pounds, nearly 12% lower than last year.
Water - California Fires
Our hearts go out to the Californians in the Los Angeles area who have been deeply affected by the devastating wildfires. Fires during January were once rare in California, but changing and more extreme weather patterns have made them increasingly common. For residents of the Central Valley, the challenges of drought are well-known. Fortunately, the last two years have brought significant improvements in drought conditions across the primary growing regions, with reservoirs replenished and the rainy season starting in a strong position regarding water storage. All of California’s major reservoirs are currently at or above their historical averages for this time of year. Notably, the two largest northern reservoirs, Shasta and Oroville, are at 129% of their historical averages.
Efforts to implement the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) continue across California. Enacted in 2014, this legislation aims to establish a statewide framework for the long-term protection of groundwater resources. As water districts work toward compliance, significant uncertainty surrounds the continuity of water supplies. Irrigation practices that have depended on groundwater may face sustainability challenges as these regulations take effect. Surface water allocations have often remained limited which further complicates matter. Even when reservoirs were full, it added to the uncertainty surrounding California’s water future.
Almond Export Market Review
India imported over 34.6 million pounds of almonds in December, a significant increase of 14 million pounds compared to November. However, this figure remains 10% below the volume imported during the same month last year. For the first five months of the crop year, India’s almond imports are down 21% compared to the previous year.
Shipments to China remain significantly suppressed, with Chinese importers trailing 45% behind last year's crop year totals. In December alone, direct shipments to China were down 60%, with noticeable declines in both inshell and kernel varieties. Chinese buyers have shifted their focus to sources offering trade advantages, particularly in value-added markets across Southeast Asia. For instance, Vietnam’s imports are up 48% for the crop year, while emerging markets like Malaysia and Singapore have seen remarkable growth, with increases of 83% and 151%, respectively.
Western Europe imported over 60 million pounds of almonds in December, remaining essentially flat year-over-year. For the crop year, shipments to the region are down 2% after a sluggish start. Spain, the EU’s largest market, is down 16% for the crop year, while the Netherlands, in second place, has experienced significant growth (+38%). With just a 6-million-pound gap, the Netherlands could challenge Spain for the top spot by the end of the year. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany (-20%) and the UK (-8%) have seen declines, Italy has remained steady, and France has posted modest growth (+5%).
The Middle East experienced another strong month of shipment growth in December, with the region up 34% for the crop year. Turkey has led the growth, importing over 60 million pounds so far this crop year, a 65% increase. The UAE has grown by 11%, and Saudi Arabia has seen an impressive 84% rise. The region continues to demonstrate robust growth and demand for California almonds, solidifying its role as a key growth engine.
Next Steps
The market outlook remains largely unchanged from last month. Buyers hoping for supply-side relief from crop receipts have been disappointed. It is now virtually certain that the harvest will not exceed the 2.8 billion-pound Objective Forecast. A revised target of 2.7 billion pounds is more realistic.
Supply-side pressures are expected to persist. While production capacity in other growing regions has increased and provided attractive alternative sources for almonds, their inventories are dwindling and will not be replenished soon. For instance, Australia’s harvest is still several months away. Meanwhile, February will mark the beginning of the bloom for California growers, but its impact will take time to assess, with an entire growing season still ahead. For now, the reality remains one of constrained supply.