Almond Shipment Report 20.11.23

There was a notable surge in shipments in October, surpassing the pace set in the previous year. The total shipments for the month amounted to 247 million pounds, showing a 12% increase from the previous month and a 15% uptick from the same period last year. Exports constituted 190.3 million pounds, but domestic shipments were down 13% compared to last year at 57 million pounds.

Shipments

India

Shipments for the month totaled 48 million pounds, showing a substantial 48% increase in comparison to last year. Year-to-date shipments have also seen a notable 38% rise. This recent surge can be attributed to buyers evaluating the quality of their initial shipments of inshell, reflecting the outcomes of this year's harvest. Anticipations are optimistic, with shipments expected to continue on a positive trajectory as India enters the festive Diwali and wedding seasons.

China/Hong Kong/Vietnam

October's shipments amounted to 29 million pounds, showing an 8% increase. However, year-to-date shipments to the region have experienced a 14% decline. Market activity to China remains slow and steady, with concerns about damage associated with this years crop contributing to to buyer hesitancy. In contrast, Vietnam witnessed robust shipments, registering a 71% increase year to date, as buyers capitalise on more favourable duties compared to US imports. Buyers will closely monitor demand through the Chinese New Year holiday to assess the need for inventory replenishment.

Europe

Shipments to the market in October increased by 17% compared to the previous year and by 6% compared to the previous month. Year-to-date shipments to Europe have risen by 9%. October typically serves as a strong shipment month to Europe, and the market is expected to maintain strong demand as it enters the Christmas season, heading into the New Year. Despite the positive outlook, macroeconomic concerns remain the primary focus for the region as it strives to achieve normalised demand.

Middle East

Middle East shipments in October surged by 72% compared to the previous year, contributing to an overall 8% increase for the season. The market in this region continues to demonstrate strong performance, positioning itself for the upcoming Ramadan holiday. However, there is a degree of demand risk, particularly for smaller kernel sizes, as premiums have strengthened due to limited supply.

Crop

The total crop receipts for the year have reached 1.334 billion pounds. Unfavourable weather conditions in October posed challenges to California's almond harvest, leading to a temporary halt due to heavy rainfall. Persistent risks of crop loss and compromised quality were heightened by shorter days, morning dew and sporadic rain. Drying complications continued with declining temperatures and increased humidity. Insect damage is expected to limit the amount of sellable supply, with some predicting as high as 4% of the crop.

via Blue Diamond Almonds (bluediamond.com)