Almond Shipment & Market Report 12.07.24
Production
The 2024 California almond production is estimated to be at 2.8 billion lbs. This is down -7% from what was predicted in May, but is still higher than the 2.47 million lbs harvested in the previous crop year. The overall acreage is the same as last year at 1.38 million, but yield estimates are projected to increase from 1,790 pounds per acre to 2,030 pounds per acre.
In terms of the weather, it has been generally favourable during bloom, with a good amount of bee flight hours. Despite some wet weather in April which increased the risk of pest damage and heat waves in June and July adding irrigation pressure to growers, the crop is expected to be harvested on time.
Shipping News
Shipment totals are currently +5.66% ahead of this time last year, with June being the 11th consecutive month shipping over 200 million pounds - the longest such streak on record. Domestic markets are up as well, at +2.29%.
Commitments for the current crop however are down -23.06%. This is most likely due to a smaller inventory of crop this year, but including new crop, the levels are slightly ahead by +7%.
Export Markets
India has surpassed 380 million pounds in the current crop year and is on track to exceed the 400 million pounds mark by July. This year, its imports have increased by 24% compared to last year, adding nearly 74 million more pounds. Impressively, India has contributed to 62% of the total growth across all export markets through June.
China has imported 26% less than last year, with imports dropping from 139 million pounds to 103 million pounds. Shipments have been evenly divided between inshell and kernel varieties, each accounting for about 51 million pounds. This contrasts with last year's 57%/43% split favouring inshell. Despite being a traditionally under-tapped market for California Almond Handlers, China's import relationship with almonds has been complicated by politics. Currently, China enjoys a trade advantage with Australia over the US, and Australia's growing capacity presents many opportunities to capitalize on this advantage.
Looking elsewhere in Southeast Asia, it's clear that the Chinese market remains robust. For instance, Vietnam has experienced a 53% growth this year, and the region as a whole has increased by 32%. These markets have invested in value-added capacities to bag, roast, and salt the almonds they import, enabling them to re-export much of their product, often destined for China.
June saw a modest slowdown for Western Europe compared to the previous year. Shipments to the region reached 39.6 million pounds for the month, down from 44.2 million pounds a year ago. Despite this, Western European countries have maintained overall growth for the year, currently pacing at +4% with one month remaining in the crop year.
Middle Eastern countries have fully rebounded after a slow start to the year, showing significant strength towards the end of the crop year. In May, the region was pacing at 11% growth for the year, and by June, this rate increased to 18%. Leading the way, the UAE and Turkey, both working from substantial bases, are pacing growth rates of 29% and 27%, respectively.
via Select Harvest