Almond Market Update 18.12.24
According to the November Position Report, California almond handlers shipped 271 million pounds in November, marking a 13.9% YoY increase and the highest monthly shipment volume since March 2022. Cumulatively, shipments for the first four months of the crop year are nearly flat, down just 0.4% YoY. November's growth was driven by export markets, which saw a robust YoY increase of 21.9%. Export shipments for the crop year to date remain effectively unchanged. In contrast, domestic shipments declined 9.8% in November and are down 0.75% for the crop year overall.
California almond handlers have now received over 2.3 billion pounds of almonds, reflecting a 25.44% increase year on year. However, this growth has slowed compared to the 38.3% pace recorded in October, aligning with the previously observed trend of an early harvest.
Market Recap for Almonds
Western Europe saw a significant recovery in November, following a 27% YoY decline in October shipments. The region imported nearly 79.5 million pounds in November, narrowing the crop year decline to just 3%. The Netherlands led with over 23.8 million pounds, more than double its imports from the first three months combined, and now boasts 38% YoY growth. Spain imported over 20 million pounds, surpassing last year’s November figure by 4 million pounds, though it remains down 15% for the crop year. Germany also rebounded, importing 11.7 million pounds in November, nearly double the volume from a year ago, though it remains down 27% YoY.
The Middle East continues to drive export growth for California almonds, with the region up 38% YoY. This accounts for an additional 31 million pounds. Turkey has been the primary driver, growing 63% YoY with over 52 million pounds imported. The UAE is up 21% and remains the region’s largest importer. In North Africa, Morocco rebounded from a 40% YoY decline in October to more than double its imports in November, now up 6% for the crop year. While concerns persist about the sustainability of last year’s growth, the November performance was a positive sign for this key market.
Asia
China continues to import significantly fewer almonds from California than it did a year ago, with shipments down 42% for the crop year. Both inshell and kernel varieties have seen declines. Political dynamics under the incoming U.S. administration are unlikely to foster improved trade relations, prompting China to diversify its almond sources. Strategies include increased procurement from Australia and reliance on value-added intermediaries in Southeast Asia. Vietnam has been a major beneficiary, with imports up 63% YoY to over 23 million pounds. Other regional players, including Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia, have also experienced significant growth.
India's almond imports are down 23% through the first four months of the crop year, equating to a decline of nearly 37.5 million pounds - a volume exceeding the total imports of all but four countries so far this year. If this volume had been realised, net export shipments would have grown 3.7% YoY instead of declining by 0.4%. Despite this drop, reports indicate that Indian consumption remains steady. Australia has gained favour due to advantageous trade conditions but has a limited supply. Encouragingly, California suppliers are seeing buyers return. India’s neighbours are emerging as growing markets. Kazakhstan imported 2.4 million pounds, up from just 200,000 pounds a year ago, while Pakistan increased imports by 1.9 million pounds. While these markets show promise, the sustainability of their growth remains uncertain.