Almond Market Update 18.04.24
March shipments exceeded industry expectations, reaching 237 million pounds - a 7% increase from the previous month but a 16% decrease from last year's record month. Export shipments also bounced back up 7% to 175 million pounds compared to last month's dip, while domestic shipments also improved 6% from the prior month.
Shipments
India
Shipments to India were 23.6 million pounds, down 14% from last year. Year-to-date shipments are 15% ahead of last season. Buying activity has increased in recent weeks after a relatively quiet March. Demand is expected to persist in the coming weeks given India has to work to cover needs to the late May and June shipments. Additionally, buyers will start to consider new crop purchases following early estimates being released over the next few weeks.
China/Hong Kong/Vietnam
Shipments to the region remained slow totalling 9.1 million pounds, down 68% from last year and 14% year-to-date. Year-to-date shipments to China alone trail last season by 26%, and consumer demand from the country remains limited due to poor economic conditions. Buyers are turning to cheaper options from Australia and Southeast Asia to meet existing demand. Demand is expected to remain limited in the short term. New crop interest is expected to rise in the summer months as China begins to position itself for an earlier 2025 Chinese New Year holiday.
Europe
Shipments to the region were 64.6 million pounds. This is down 8.9% from last year but up 5.5% year-to-date compared to last season. With prices softening in recent weeks, buyers have taken a conservative approach, mainly making hand-to-mouth purchases. Demand is expected to increase in the coming weeks as buyers seek to cover the third quarter and to a greater degree, the fourth quarter needs to maintain sufficient pipelines.
Middle East
Shipments to the Middle East totalled 31 million pounds, down 15% from last year, but Year-to-date shipments are now on par with last year. Reports of Ramadan consumption have been positive with buyers becoming more active as the holiday concludes. Some demand challenges persist due to current geopolitical tensions. Overall, attractive pricing is likely to drive short-term buying interest.
Commitments
Total commitments improved for the second consecutive month to 576 million pounds marking a 9% improvement over last month while remaining down 11% to last year. Additionally, uncommitted inventory is down 12% from last year, reaching 774 million pounds resulting from this year's reduced supply. New sales for the month jumped 27% and total new sales for the year exceeded last season by 2%.
The industry remains on pace to reach a carryout of nearly 500 million pounds, a level not seen in the past 3 years. This development is encouraging and is expected to provide some much-needed price stability going forward.
Crop
With the 2023 crop wrapping up and coming in around 2.45 million pounds, the focus will now shift to the 2024 crop. Crop development will be closely monitored throughout the spring and summer months. Meanwhile, various estimates will be released in the coming weeks offering some additional forecasts and perspectives.
Market Perspective
March shipments exceeded expectations, keeping the industry on track to reduce the carryout to a more manageable level of around 500 million pounds. Following a positive almond bloom, buying interest has waned in recent weeks causing prices to soften as a result. Buyers acknowledge the attractiveness of current price levels but remain conservative in their approach and are intent to wait and see how much further prices may decline. Current market prices reflect a better-than-average crop, although it is premature to make a definitive assessment. Demand is expected to gain momentum in the coming weeks upon release of the initial reports and forecasts that will offer buyers some semblance of guidance for their purchasing decisions in the near term.
via Blue Diamond Growers