Almond Market Update 13.11.24
October almond shipment figures fell at the lower end of projections, reflecting continued logistical challenges. However, sales climbed from 250 million lbs in 2023 to 265 million lbs in 2024, marking the highest October volume since 2019. This growth highlights resilience in demand despite supply chain constraints. Meanwhile, committed stock levels, a key indicator of future shipments, were slightly below last year at 674 million lbs. The sold position—representing 40% of the total supply—remains consistent with the prior year. This signals stable forward commitments in the market.
In the U.S., shipment growth accelerated to 18% in October, compared to 11% in September. This uptick underscores the easing of a tight transition period as buyers secured pollinators for their orchards, improving the flow of domestic shipments. However, export volumes once again faced setbacks due to vessel delays, with some shipments rolling into November. These delays likely played a significant role in the underwhelming October shipment figures, despite strong underlying demand.
Looking ahead, inshell demand looks to rise sharply over the coming months. Historically sluggish shipments to India have created a backlog, and local demand within India has shown signs of recovery in recent weeks. By October 31, approximately 70% of California's estimated almond crop had been hulled, shelled, and graded by the USDA. Given the additional two weeks of processing since that date, it is likely that the percentage of processed corp is over 75% of the crop. Yet, the window for increased inshell demand to drive significant premiums for California sellers is narrowing. Without a rapid pickup in this segment, sellers may lack the incentive to produce more inshell almonds. As a result, the inshell market is set to play a pivotal role in shaping the broader almond market dynamics as the season continues.
The market is also closely watching the upcoming acreage report, expected next week. This report will provide crucial insights, as recent trends have shown a decline in almond acreage. Factors such as water scarcity, high input costs, and fluctuating market conditions have driven these numbers. Any significant changes in acreage could influence long-term supply expectations and market sentiment.
via Rpac