Almond Market Report 14.02.24

Shipments

• India: Shipments to India reached 39 million pounds, marking a 12% increase compared to the previous year. Year-to-date shipments have surged by 25%, primarily fueled by robust purchasing activity in the initial half of the month. However, momentum waned in the latter weeks as importers shifted focus towards execution and profit-taking. Moreover, buyer enthusiasm dampened in anticipation of the Position Report and the forthcoming almond bloom, aiming to gauge future price trends. Nonetheless, overall demand remains sturdy, with expectations of renewed buying activity in the coming weeks.
• China/Hong Kong/Vietnam: Shipments to the region were 6.6 million pounds, reflecting a 14% decrease from the previous year. Year-to-date shipments, however, are up by 17.5% compared to last year. Buying activity remained subdued through the month as China geared up for the Chinese New Year holiday, commencing on the 10th of February. The industry will closely monitor consumer demand during the holiday period, as it often sets the tone for future demand expectations.
• Europe: January shipments amounted to 61 million pounds, a 4% increase from the previous year, brining year-to-date shipments 8% ahead of last year. Western Europe, particularly The Netherlands, Germany, France, and the UK, continue to exhibit strong performance with sustained year-over-year growth. Demand is anticipated to remain active moving forward, with products being directly channeled to the market rather than being stored.
• Middle East: Shipments to the Middle East totalled 28 million pounds for the month, representing an 8% increase compared to the prior year, putting year-to-date shipments 7% ahead of last season. Buyers in the region are actively shifting towards larger-sized kernels due to limited availability of smaller ones. Challenges persist in the Red Sea, resulting in pipeline issues with prolonged transit times and port congestion, prompting buyers to seek alternative ports of delivery. The upcoming Gulfood show in Dubai offers an opportunity for face-to-face interactions between handlers and buyers.
• Domestic (USA): January Shipments within the USA were modest at 62.9 million pounds, down 5% for the month. Despite monthly fluctuations, domestic shipments have remained relatively stable, trailing behind the previous year by only 0.5%. New sales have declined by 24.9% compared to the previous year. Current buying strategies reflect a short-term outlook as buyers assess demand for the latter half of the crop year and evaluate potential outcomes for the bloom period.

Commitments

Total commitments now stand at 37 million pounds, marking a significant 24% decrease compared to the previous year. New sales for the month amounted to 236 million pounds, reflecting a notable 33% decline from last year's figures. The pace of new sales currently lags behind last year's by 2%, primarily due to lower domestic shipments. With an assumed crop size of 2.45 billion pounds, current shipments and commitments account for 64% of total supply which is only a slight increase over last year's recorded 63%. The industry appears to be on track to achieve a carryout of nearly 500 million pounds, a level not observed in the past three years. This development is promising and is anticipated to contribute to long-term price stability.

Crop

Crop receipts for the current year amount to 2.391 billion pounds, showing a 3.5% decrease compared to the previous season. Despite this, many within the industry continue to anticipate a crop size of approximately 2.45 billion pounds. The almond bloom has now commenced, with early varieties on the brink of blooming and bee boxes being strategically positioned in orchards. The market will closely monitor the weather conditions in the upcoming weeks and their impact on bee activity. The bloom phase is pivotal in determining the production potential for the forthcoming crop year, making it the focal point of attention within the almond industry.

via Blue Diamond Growers