Macadamias Report 15.01.25

Early indications from South Africa suggest a promising crop, potentially around 10% higher than last year’s yield. However, exporters are proceeding cautiously with their offers, largely due to expectations of strong demand from China and ongoing price uncertainties.

Carryover stock from 2024 is modest, though slightly higher than anticipated in the final quarter of last year. In Kenya, the availability of 2024 macadamia products remains limited, with only a handful of exporters starting to offer the 2025 crop. Nonetheless, macadamia production in 2025 is projected to rise significantly, supported by reports of excellent flowering conditions in late 2024. Despite these positive signs, macadamia kernel exporters are wary of competition from Chinese buyers, who predominantly focus on in-shell macadamias.

To address the challenge of premature harvesting by growers eager to profit from the upcoming crop, the Kenyan government has introduced a ban on macadamia harvesting between December and March 2025. This measure aims to ensure that only mature in-shell macadamias are harvested. However, it remains uncertain whether the government will take further steps to shield local processors from competition with Chinese in-shell exporters.

Since December, demand has slowed considerably. Concerns linger over whether macadamia imports and consumer demand could be impacted by the new U.S. government tariff policies or other unexpected developments. With inventories in most markets assumed to be low—following last year’s price surge and restricted supply—we anticipate a market rebound in the near term, although buyers are likely to exercise caution in their commitments.

During 2022/2023 many buyers in the food business as well as for example the cosmetic/beauty industry, took advantage of competitive pricing for macadamia products. Now, however, faced with uncertainty in Global economies, it will be interesting to see what price sensitivity there is in the market moving forward.