Turkish Vine Fruit Update 10.12.24

Date: 10th December 2024 Category: Latest News
Turkish Vine Fruit Update 10.12.24

Turkish Vine Fruit is entering a crucial period as we edge towards South African fruit being harvested in Q1 2025. The reason South Africa is so key is that almost all major users in the UK, which is the largest country of buyers of Vine Fruit in the world, are holding off booking Turkish material on longer-term contracts until they see what happens with South African new crop. The problem with this strategy is that the demand for South African material is going to be extreme and likely to outstrip supply, even with the predicted good harvest, especially on Sultanas given that it is not a large volume of the crop.

Registrations from farmers/traders to the packers are slightly up. However, exports are down by 23,809 tonnes or -30% compared to the same period last year. Given the current price levels, it’s hardly surprising that we are seeing a slowdown in exports. Buyers across the world are really struggling to accept work with these levels and they are looking at other origins to offer some relief. Subsequently, Turkish packers are chasing business a little bit and you can find some competitive offers for shorter-term contracts, whereas forward contracts are carrying a premium due to finance costs.

What we predict will happen is South Africa won’t be able to meet anywhere near the demand from European markets. Germany already buys significant volume, meaning there will be a surge back to Türkiye during the end Q1 & start Q2. If this surge does happen then we are going to see prices rise sharply. This is because the Turkish market will be almost empty of available raw material from farmers/traders to packers. Additionally, those packers will be feeling the effect of another increase in the Turkish minimum wage. A 30% increase is expected in January 2025, which will further impact the export price.