Turkish Pistachios Report 15.10.24
Türkiye’s pistachio production in 2024/25 is forecast to reach a new record due to multiple factors. Higher production volumes and larger-than-normal carryover stocks are expected to prompt sizeable export volumes of Turkish pistachios for the first time. While Türkiye’s tree nut production keeps growing, they're expected to import substantial volumes of other nuts to meet consumer demand. Imports of U.S. tree nuts continue to be disadvantaged by an imposed 10 per cent retaliatory tariff because of U.S. Section 232 duties on Turkish steel and aluminium. Despite this, the United States is still one of the top suppliers of walnuts, almonds and pistachios to Türkiye.
Production
Türkiye’s pistachio production in 2024/25 is forecast to more than double year-over-year to a record of 385,000 metric tons (MT). Multiple factors contribute to this projected increase. The most notable being that is this year is considered an “on-year” in the production cycle for pistachios. The growth in production is also linked to an increase in the number of bearing trees, higher yields as trees reach optimal bearing age, and favourable weather conditions during the growing season.
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), there were an estimated 60.5 million bearing pistachio trees at the beginning of the current marketing year, up nearly 4 per cent from last year. Market sources confirmed that many trees are now approaching ten years of age, which is when yields reach optimal levels. This age-related yield factor will contribute to higher production volumes this year and in the years ahead.
At the same time, there are about 26.6 million non-bearing trees, which is about 4.5 per cent higher than a year ago. Turkiye’s production of high-quality pistachios is predicted to increase in the future with the increasing number of young trees.
Over the last 10-15 years, pistachio growers have invested in developing and expanding their orchards, replacing old trees (some of which are 50 years old) and introducing modern growing techniques. These more sophisticated orchards with their newer trees, which are less affected by the periodicity in production, are expected to achieve higher yields and production volumes in the future. Good rainfall conditions in the spring of this year also contributed to the increase in pistachio production in 2024/25. Timely and adequate precipitation is critical since most pistachio production across Türkiye is rain-fed.
Yield
Pistachio yields and production levels can vary dramatically from year to year. Average yields during an on-year range from 4-6 kilograms (kg) per tree and 2-3 kg per tree during off-years. However, periodicity effects on yields have decreased in recent years with the planting of new trees, on-farm investments, and the introduction of good agricultural practices. At the same time, farmers have learned how to reach higher yields by taking better care of the trees. As a result of these improvements, average yields are expected to continue to slowly increase in the coming years.
Trade
Exports
2024/25 exports are forecast at a record 80,000 MT, assuming that demand remains steady for re-exported pistachios. Given the anticipated oversupply of domestic pistachios this year, Post expects Türkiye will export a sizeable amount of domestic pistachios to overseas markets this year. Up until this year, Türkiye only exported minor amounts of domestic pistachios, mostly in processed products. The bulk of Türkiye’s exports have historically consisted of U.S. and Iranian pistachios. These are sorted and packed in Turkish free trade zones and re-exported to third markets. Looking ahead, given the yearly fluctuations in domestic pistachio production, Post expects that the re-export business will continue to dominate overall exports for the foreseeable future.
Türkiye predominantly exports shelled pistachios. The leading export destinations are Italy, Germany, Iraq, Syria, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia.
Imports
2024/25 imports are forecast at 35,000 MT, which is down about 27 per cent from the previous year’s newly revised figure as import demand is expected to slacken because of a record domestic harvest and large pistachio stocks.
2023/24 pistachio import volumes are revised to 48,000 MT in line with the latest trade data. The United States and Iran were the largest sources of imported pistachios, with U.S. pistachios accounting for 80 per cent of total imports. According to market sources and Post observations, imported pistachios are typically not sold on the domestic market. This is due to high import taxes but are instead brought into free trade zones for processing and re-export.
Stocks
With the record harvest, year-end stocks for 2024/25 are forecast to more than double from last year's estimate. This prediction assumes that traders will only sell off a portion of their inventories because stock levels are so large.
2023/24 ending stocks are revised higher to 95,000 MT based on an upward revision to the pistachio production number and in alignment with market expectations. According to industry insiders, pistachio traders intentionally hold onto inventories longer than normal to drive domestic prices higher. Accurate end-stock data would help stabilise price fluctuations and consumption levels, especially in off-years.