Desi Chickpea Market Update 07.10.24

Production

• India: The 2023-24 chickpea production is estimated at 11.04 million metric tons, a decline from last year's 12.3 million mt. This was due to unfavourable weather conditions However, weather in 2024 has improved, with monsoon rains exceeding last year's levels in many areas, though some chickpea-growing regions have experienced rainfall shortages.
• Australia: The country is expected to produce approximately 2 million tonnes, a significant rise from previous years (491,000 tonnes last year). This is driven by favourable growing conditions. However, the latest September ABARES report projects a lower output of 1.3 million tonnes.
• Tanzania: The expected production of desi chickpeas is around 135,000 tonnes.
• Russian: Trade sources estimate desi chickpea production at around 50,000 tonnes, exported to Pakistan, offsetting reduced shipments from Tanzania.

Pricing

As of 26th September, Australian Desi chickpeas were priced at $800 per ton CNF for deliveries to India. This marks a slight increase of 1% from the previous week's price of $795 per ton CNF. Meanwhile, shipments to Bangladesh stood at $840 per ton CNF and $890 / ton CNF to Nepal, both experiencing a 4% decline compared to the four-week average.

In India's domestic market, chickpea prices have also softened. In Delhi, prices are currently INR 7,925 per quintal, while in Bikaner they are INR 7,725 per quintal, an average decline of 1-2%. This downward trend can be attributed to an increase in local supply. Between September 21-27, local arrivals surged by 62%, reaching a total of 29,741 metric tons, putting additional pressure on prices.

International supply dynamics

The Australian market has reported signs of stabilisation for its new chickpea crop, although the available quantities are expected to remain constrained until at least November. This limited supply has raised concerns about meeting growing demand, particularly as global consumption patterns continue to shift. Buyers are increasingly anxious about whether Australia's reduced output will be sufficient to meet international demand during the early part of the season.

With lower stock availability from Australia, importers may need to turn to alternative markets to fill the gap. This increased reliance on other producers could potentially push prices higher, especially if global demand remains robust. Such a scenario would place additional pressure on countries like India and Bangladesh, where demand for chickpeas is consistently high.

Compounding these issues is port congestion in Tanzania, another key supplier of chickpeas. Logistical bottlenecks at Tanzanian ports are causing delays in export shipments, which could further restrict the flow of chickpeas. If these logistical challenges persist, they could exacerbate supply shortages, leading to further price volatility. This makes it difficult for buyers to secure consistent supplies.

Factors influencing demand