Turkish Vine Fruit Market Report 23.08.24
The 2024 season is shaping up to be another intriguing one. While growers seek higher prices, customers are already facing elevated costs. The market's direction will largely depend on how growers and buyers react in this uncertain environment. The market's future is unpredictable, and much will depend on the behaviour of the people involved.
Crop Size & Harvest
In Türkiye, the harvest has begun earlier than expected, about 10-14 days ahead of schedule. Unfortunately, growers are not satisfied with the yield, as bunch counts per vine are lower than anticipated. Although the early harvest has resulted in higher sugar content, it hasn't fully offset the lower yield. At the same time, the official crop estimate is yet to be announced. it's widely accepted to be around 230,000 mt.
Compared to the 2023 crop which was significantly smaller at 180-190,000 tons, the carry-in from the previous year helped to boost the 2023 supply. However, with no carry-in expected for the 2024 crop, the total supply will be much smaller than last year's.
Market Information
At the start of the 2023 crop, offer prices were low, beginning at 1,400 USD/ton and eventually reaching 4,200 USD/ton. To date, 202,000 metric tons have been shipped at an average price of 2,345 USD/ton, down from 250,000 metric tons the previous year.
Currently, market prices are around 3,500 USD/ton. Despite high inflation and a strong Lira, these prices are relatively cheap in Lira terms but quite expensive in USD. The Turkish government is signalling continued tight monetary policy to combat inflation, keeping interest rates high, which may impact demand. Financing costs are steep, with borrowing rates at 55% for Lira and 8% for USD, making it expensive to hold raw materials and potentially slowing demand.
Although base offer prices rose to 4,200 USD/ton by the end of the 2023 crop, the industry didn't fully test these levels, with the season's average export price at 2,345 USD/ton. Market volatility is expected, and it remains to be seen how much volume will shift to other origins or if consumption will decrease.
Crop Quality
The vineyards are running two weeks ahead, but the harvest didn't start as early. The brix content is excellent, and the berries are heavy, making it difficult to find small or medium-sized berries. Even if they appear small, they weigh more, likely leading to revisions in the Turkish Standard TS3411 berry counts and higher upcharges for smaller sizes.
Fortunately, the vineyards have not been affected by significant diseases this year, so overall quality is good. However, the quantity of Thompsons will be low, as growers haven't been adequately rewarded for this variety in the past. Prices for Thompsons will depend on market demand and competition from other origins.
Harvest conditions are favourable so far, with dry weather, strong winds, and no rain. The harvest will be brief due to the small crop size, and the availability of dark fruit (types 7's or 8's) will be limited if these conditions persist.