Vine Fruits and Tree Fruits Market Report 05.08.24

Vine Fruits

2023 Crop Exports

As of the third week of July 2024, the export volume for the 2023 crop has reached 195,000 metric tons of the 2022 crop during the same week of the previous year. The average unit export price has increased to $2,314 per metric ton, up from $1,696 per metric ton for the previous crop. On a weekly basis, however, prices have risen to $3,075 per metric ton from $1,700 per metric ton during the same week last year.

By the third week of July 2024, the export volume for the 2023 crop had reached 195,000 metric tons, matching the volume of the 2022 crop during the same period last year. The average unit export price has increased to $2,314 per metric ton, up from $1,696 per metric ton for the previous crop. However, on a weekly basis, prices have risen to $3,075 per metric ton, compared to $1,700 per metric ton during the same week last year.

The top ten countries account for 85% of the total export volume, with the top five countries importing dried grapes from Turkey are the UK (49.5 thousand mt), the Netherlands (26.1 thousand mt), Germany (19.4 thousand mt), Italy (14.8 thousand mt), and Australia (13.2 thousand mt).

Price Levels and Market

The 2023 crop is expected to meet or fall short of market predictions, estimated between 200,000 and 220,000 metric tons. While some fruit remains with growers, this is typical for any season and does not alter the overall outlook. Although the USDA's July 2024 report of Turkish Sultanas projected 245,000 metric tons for the 2023 crop and 265,000 metric tons for the 2024 crop, grower registrations indicate that the 2023 crop is likely closer to 200,000 metric tons. The most significant factor contributing to the reduced 2023 crop size was mildew disease. Additional issues such as rain, quality, and waste during harvest, also negatively impacted the crop size.

For the 2024 crop, the market initially expected around 250,000 metric tons, despite the lack of an official field study. However, since the unofficial estimate announced at INC-Vancouver, conditions in the field have improved compared to the challenges faced by the 2023 crop. Although the original bunch counts were about 30% lower than a typical year, we are now seeing larger bunches and, more importantly, higher brix levels. In previous years, early harvests with low brix levels led to yield losses of up to 10% for growers.This year, however, larger bunches and higher brix levels are helping vineyards recover some of the previously estimated losses. As a result, market players are now estimating the new crop to be slightly higher than the initial 250,000 metric tons.

A major factor influencing pricing over the past 6 months has been the surge of large alcohol producers, particularly raki manufacturers, purchasing directly from growers regardless of price, bypassing traditional processors. Although it remains to be seen how this sector will engage with the market for the new crop, it is unlikely that they will withdraw entirely. Additionally, export pricing has traditionally depended on the USD/TRL exchange rates. Currently, financial markets do not anticipate a sudden strengthening of the USD, partly due to the Central Bank's consistent reserve increases since the mayoral elections in March. However, even with a reasonable crop as mentioned earlier, a higher rate of devaluation by the end of the year and during the second half of the crop year would likely keep Turkish pricing competitive.

From the vineyards

In the vineyard regions, July had pretty dry weather when compared to the previous years, some small local areas received rain. Due to the development in the leaves and bunches, the irrigation process is done in this period. Although the number of bunches is less than last year, high temperatures, especially in the last months, have caused the grains to become larger. The vineyards have matured earlier than usual, and it is anticipated that the harvest will commence earlier compared to previous years.

In the vineyard regions, July was relatively dry compared to previous years, with only a few small local areas receiving rain. During this period, irrigation was conducted to support the development of leaves and bunches. Although there are fewer bunches than last year, high temperatures in recent months have caused the grapes to grow larger. The vineyards have matured earlier than usual, and the harvest is expected to begin sooner than in previous years.

Typically, harvesting begins when the brix level reaches 22-23. The harvest is likely to start this year in the first half of August.

Tree Fruits

Apricots

By the third week of July 2024, the export volume for the 2023 apricot crop reached 65,600 metric tons, marking a 20.7% decrease from the 79,200 metric tons exported during the same period in 2022. Despite this decline, the average unit export price has risen by 11.1%, from $5,621 last year to $6,249 per metric ton this year. On a weekly basis, however, prices have decreased from $6,639 per metric ton to $5,998 per metric ton.

Even though we approach the end of the harvest time, the new crop prices have not yet stabilised. The expectation of the new crop prices will stabilise significantly within the next 7 to 10 days. It is important to note that while large-sized products are abundant, the availability of medium-sized items is more limited, particularly in the size ranges of 4, 5, and 6. Currently, the general quality is acceptable. As usual, the sulphured apricot volume is expected to be higher than the natural apricot volume.

Figs

By the third week of July 2024, the export volume for the 2023 crop reached 58,400 metric tons, 6.1% lower than the 62,000 metric tons exported during the same period in 2022. However, the average unit export price increased by 30.4%, rising from $4,115 per metric ton for the previous crop to $5,370 this year.

For the new crop, it is still early to make definitive assessments, but some quality issues have been observed with figs grown in low-altitude areas due to hot weather. Most figs are not ripening properly, resulting in premature dropping, while those that do ripen are most often empty inside due to the hot weather conditions. This situation may impact overall quality and availability in the coming weeks. In the following days, we will have more information about the trees and fig developments.

It's still too early to make definitive assessments for the new crop, but some quality issues have been observed with figs grown in low-altitude areas due to hot weather. Many figs are not ripening properly and are dropping prematurely. Those that do ripen are often empty inside due to the heat. This situation may affect overall quality and availability in the coming weeks.

via Pagmat